Just a small post on the “negligence doctrine” and the deterrence of nuclear terrorism. I will have more, a big article after I finish my marking duties, in due course.

We have seen that STRATCOM has stated that in the context of nuclear terrorism that they have created a “deliberate plan.”

What would a STRATCOM strike package look like? The attack would have to be proportionate. Say if a ~10kt terrorist bomb were to be detonated in New York. If the US were to follow the absurd “negligence doctrine” after Russian fissile material attribution it is clear that the strike could not be made with either the MMIII or the D5.

The yield of the warheads, such as the W88, are too large. Most likely we would be talking about a B61 based Stealth Bomber strike. The B61 can come in a number of mods and yield ranges, it’s a “dial a yield” weapon, but it seems that the B61 yield ranges from 0.3kt to 340kt.

The strike would come from one of the B61 B-2 based weapons that was slated for what was called a “limited attack option” in the old days of the SIOP.

The strike also would not be made with the MMIII or the D5 to try and avoid accidental nuclear war scenarios.

So, a strike plan like this would be a form of signaling very much in line with intra-war deterrence thinking. At best, Moscow will play the game and trade blows with the US or if the Russians are consistent, they have never bought intra-war deterrence (because Moscow’s military-industrial complex did not exist within a democracy the Soviet era defence sector did not need to come up with such doctrines to justify a strategic buildup that went beyond overkill), then they would respond with all of their strategic weapons on alert.

Either way, the likely outcome would not be controlled escalation.