I announce the launch of scisec.net
That is now my own domain name here at wordpress.
So, go to www.scisec.net for the new set up
I have decided to fully take up the opportunity offered by self-publishing on the internet.
I hope that scisec.net will become something bigger over time.
I welcome collaborators.
First of all..Yes I am alive and well, sort of. I have been swamped with work and stuff and this has made it hard to keep up let alone blog but I am starting to get on top of it and I am not gonna bother spell check this entry. Boy, has shit flowed under the bridge in the meantime. We have seen stuff on
(1). The Syrian reactor. Arggh!!! Might have got that one wrong but hey you can only go on the info in the public domain. I think ISIS had inside info on this one.
(2). Interesting Trident II D5 RV news. I will blog on this soon…this is pretty hot stuff really.
(3). Fuck I can’t believe this one but yes it might just be official…a negligence doctrine to deter nuclear terrorism might be in the new Presidential Guidance on deterring WMD terrorism!!!!!! in other words it expands on nuclear weapons employment policy. Def more on this coming.
(4). IAEA safeguards C in C notes from B/GOV meeting have been leaked…hmm to ISIS…and pretty interesting read esp 600 metre high altitude fuzing option for the Shahab 3 warhead. More on that too I hope as story continues to develop.
More as well has flowed under the bridge on other topics but just briefly on the Syrian reactor. OK. I have seen all the stuff on this and if this is a Pu production reactor then we are talking about something like a 6 year Pu production campaign for 1 bomb. Let us assume that a strategically significant arsenal for Assad is 3 nukes…Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa. That makes 18 years. 24 if one must be tested. Not very efficient.
Has Syria violated safeguards? Yes. That’s bad…but it shows that preventive military strikes actually undermines the safeguards system if this was a part of Syria’s research programme.
See you later, yeah.
Sarkozy in a major speech on France and nuclear weapons has done three things (1) announced reductions in the size of the French nuclear arsenal (2) re-affirmed that France has a global conception of strategic nuclear deterrence and (3) again called for a “dialogue” on a Euro deterrent.
First the cuts. It is clear that what Sarko is putting forward is a 1/3 cut in the number of aircraft delivered warheads. To which we shall return.
In his speech Sarko stated
…”Countries in Asia and the Middle East are rapidly developing ballistic capacities,” he said in a defence policy speech to mark the inauguration of a new-generation nuclear submarine named The Terrible.
“I am thinking in particular of Iran,” which is “increasing the range of its missiles while serious suspicions weigh on its nuclear programme,” …
This re-affirms what we have known for some time namely that France is developing a globalised conception of nuclear strategy in the second nuclear age much like the United States which has moved from a rigid SIOP toward “adaptive planning” which amounts to the globalisation of strategic nuclear war planning. Sarko refers to Iran but notice he also includes Asia.
Again Paris has raised the Euro deterrent issue
…”Regarding Europe, it is a fact that France’s nuclear forces by their very existence are a key element in its security,” he said.
“Let us together draw the logical conclusions: I propose to begin with those of our European partners who so desire an open dialogue on the role of deterrence and its contribution to our common security,” said Sarkozy…
Points (1) (2) and (3) match. Think of it like this. If France is developing a nuclear strategy in line with the sort of thinking about a “second nuclear age” as many do in the United States much of the air delivered nuclear capability of France becomes a Cold War era relic. A globalised nuclear strategy would naturally see France shift the burden even more toward sea based components of “deterrence.” This is not a “disarmament” measure as it has been presented. France is working on new boomers, new SLBM’s and the new TNO warhead for those SLBM’s. So (1) and (2) are linked.
(3) I have always felt is meant to deter the United States. If Europe is indeed to acquire an independent power projection capability to advance European interests, especially in the context of diminishing fossil fuel resources, then a European strategic nuclear capability would act as a shield or umbrella of power to buttress such a posture. The effect of this would be to reverse the effects of the Suez crisis and the main focus of deterrence would be the United States. (2) and (3) would become linked in this way.
Meanwhile it has been announced that London and Paris are to team together under a civil nuclear cooperation plan
…Britain and France will announce a deal to build new nuclear power stations and export the technology worldwide during President Nicolas Sarkozy’s state visit next week, the Guardian reported Saturday.
Britain approved the construction of a new generation of nuclear plants in January and wants to take advantage of French expertise to help build them, the paper said…
The plan will be announced at the stadium of Arsenal FC. This is kinda appropriate after all Arsenal’s manager is Arsene Wenger (French) and under his reign there has been a strong French connection Henry etc.
Of course notice that Sarko’s speech is not unrelated to this. Sarko singles out the Middle East as a source of nuclear proliferation concern yet Sarko has speed up France’s role in the drive for nuclear energy in the region. This is what is called international relations.
Notice that the French military-industrial complex has the same reason to talk up the Iran threat as the US military-industrial complex. Sarko was elected on a mandate to implement free market reforms in order to “reform France” but notice that means reforms directed toward the French urban poor and workers; such reforms are not meant for those sectors of the French state that aid the elite.
Again just like the US. No wonder that Sarko is hopping into bed with Washington on everything from Iran to the false state of “Kosovo.”
